Should I have written this after this year’s Oscars? Yes.

Should I have waited until there was a little more information to go on? Yes.

But what the hell, it’s on my mind. In this post, I will attempt to identify some films with an ETA sometime in 2020 that could be massive Oscar contenders. A disclaimer is in order: this is purely based on educated guesswork and word of mouth. The only 2020 film I’ve seen thus far is Guy Ritchie’s The Gentlemen, and as much as I’d like to see that get into categories like Original Screenplay and Supporting Actor (Hugh Grant), it ain’t happening. So without further ado here a few movies to watch for your super-super-early Oscar predictions. Also, this is not a particularly well-structured post.

The Sundance Pick: The Father (dir. Florian Zeller)

The Father made waves at Sundance when it premiered a couple of days ago. Word is that it is ‘at once both an unsettlingly accurate simulation of what it’s like to love someone with dementia, and also a strikingly believable conception of what it’s like to live as someone with dementia’ (David Ehrlich, IndieWire). I’ve seen massive praise for Anthony Hopkins’ performance in the film – he must surely be a lock for Best Actor 2021. The film sounds right up the Academy’s alley (about getting older and losing yourself, great performances) and has been picked up by Sony Pictures Classics.

The Sci-Fi Pick, Part I: Dune (dir. Denis Villeneuve)

The Academy has established a precedent of usually nominating one or two sci-fi or fantasy picks every year in the last twelve (2019, 2014 and 2012 being the only exceptions): Black Panther, The Shape of Water/Get Out, Arrival, Mad Max: Fury Road, Gravity/Her, Midnight in Paris, Inception (we’ll come back to that one), District 9/Avatar and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, along with the Lord of the Rings trilogy in the early-2000s, one of which actually won. The first of two sci-fi/fantasy film to look out for in the next year is Dune, which has been described by viewers of early footage as Star Wars meets LOTR, both of which were Best Picture nominees. To fan those flames, Villeneuve is already an Oscar favourite having picked up a bunch of nominations for his previous two efforts (both sci-fi), Arrival and Blade Runner 2049.

The Sci-Fi Pick, Part II: Tenet (dir. Christopher Nolan)

Christopher Nolan’s also managed to carve out a spot for himself as the rare Oscar favourite director with blockbuster appeal over the last decade. While he missed nominations for The Dark Knight Rises and Interstellar, he made up for them in Best Picture noms for Inception and Dunkirk. With Tenet looking to be his most Inception-y film since Inception, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Oscars give it some love.

The Song Pick: No Time to Die (dir. Cary Joji Fukunaga)

Look at the facts, people: after decades of unfairly snubbing movies in this franchise, both the previous two James Bond films (Skyfall and Spectre) have won Best Original Song. Spectre isn’t even that good of a movie and it can still call itself Oscar-winning for its song! The original song for No Time to Die, recently revealed to be sung by the Grammy-winning Billie Eilish, is definitely a lock for BOS if not a win, unless it’s somehow really bad.

The Comic Book Pick: The Eternals (dir. Cloé Zhao)

For two years in a row the Academy has nominated a comic book movie (Black Panther and Joker). This looks significantly less likely this time round seeing as the race already has two major sci-fi contenders, but Marvel Studios’ The Eternals could definitely scratch that LOTR itch if Dune doesn’t hit the mark.

The Animated Pick(s): Onwards and Soul (dir. Dan Scanlon and Pete Docter, respectively)

The Academy loves Pixar and the studio has two movies coming out this year – how could the Oscars pass this dynamic duo up?

The Spielberg/Musical Pick: West Side Story (dir. Steven Spielberg)

It seems that the Academy has a deal that whenever two-time Best Director winner Steven Spielberg makes a ‘serious’ movie they’ll nominate for Best Picture. To add to this, his latest is a musical, and they also love musicals. You could make the argument that the Academy might be a bit iffy on a seemingly unnecessary remake of a classic movie, but let’s not forget that they nominated the remake of True Grit in 2011. Let’s also not forget that the original West Side Story won Best Picture in 1962.

The About-the-Movies Pick: Mank (dir. David Fincher)

I’ll admit that the Academy has a bit of a dodgy track record with nominating David Fincher (let’s not speak of that horrific Best Director loss in 2011), but you can’t deny that they love movies about movies: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, La La Land, Argo, Hugo, Inglourious Basterds. As a side note, I find it pretty funny that a director with one of the biggest-ever Best Director losses is making a movie about a movie with one of the biggest-ever Best Picture losses.

One last one:

The Biopic Pick: Blonde (dir. Andrew Dominik)

You could argue that Mank is a biopic pick, just like you could argue that Blonde is a about-the-movies pick. However, it’s my list so piss off. They’ve gotta nominate a biopic with a transformative performance at the centre, and Blonde certainly fulfill that promise. With a stacked cast including Ana de Armas, Bobby Cannavale and Best Actor winner Adrien Brody, this Marilyn Monroe biopic is pretty much a lock, unless it really fails with critics like Judy did.

Two Honourable Mentions: The French Dispatch (it could definitely get in but Wes Anderson has only hit the big time in Oscar noms once) and In the Heights (it certainly has a chance but given the choice between two musicals I feel the Academy will go for West Side Story)

GoldDerby is holding its annual Film Awards on February 1st, and voting is open now. Below are my votes:

As an extra bit of fun, I’ve also figured out a leaderboard for the movies as to how many votes each film got:

1. Parasite (4)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (3)
3. 1917 (3)
4. The Irishman (3)
5. Marriage Story (2)
6. Little Women (2)
7. Knives Out (1)
8. Rocketman (1)
9. Bombshell (1)
10. Toy Story 4 (1)

I might do a Beyond the Popcorn awards show closer to the Oscars. The nominees and winners will probably be a bit different at my awards.

One of my big ‘out-there’ predictions for most of this awards season was that the Academy would not give Best Director to predictor favourites Sam Mendes or Bong Joon-ho, but to one Mr. Quentin Tarantino. I know no one else has been predicting this but allow me to explain my thinking.

Tarantino has by far the best narrative of any of the nominees. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is his penultimate film (allegedly) and he’s never won Best Director before (despite his OUATIH nomination being his third in the category). If the rumours are true and he goes with something less Academy-friendly for his final film, like Star Trek or Kill Bill: Vol. 3, then this could be his last chance to win the award. Mendes and Joon-ho just don’t have narratives this strong (and the narrative is extremely important). Sam Mendes has already won Best Director, for American Beauty at the 2000 ceremony. Bong Joon-ho is picking up his first nomination for Parasite, so he’s hardly overdue, and he’s got plenty of gas left in the tank to pick up another one.

Hence why I thought Tarantino was the secret front runner. However, as the night of February 9th draws closer, I must concede defeat. Of the awards shows that tend to give an indication of the Oscar front runners, Tarantino has not won a single award for his directing (which tends to be overshadowed by his screenwriting but deserves praise in it’s own right). Meanwhile, Mendes has won the Golden Globe, the Critic’s Choice and the final nail in my Tarantino prediction’s coffin, the Director’s Guild of America award.

Mendes is now the front runner for Best Director. I’m not devastated by this – he must be a great director to coordinate all the moving parts present in 1917 – but it would have been nice to see Tarantino get it, or Bong Joon-ho. Ah well, can’t win ’em all.

I don’t feel this needs any introduction.

Once again Disney shows its flagrant disregard for cinema history and filmmaker legacy.

But at least we’ll get to see the Avengers meet the X-Men, right?

Let’s just go through them, shall we? (nominations taken from Variety, hence why they’re not formatted as they usually would be on Beyond the Popcorn)

Visual Effects:

“Avengers Endgame”
“The Irishman”
“1917”
“The Lion King”
“Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker”

Thoughts: This category travelled as expected for me with the exception of Rise of Skywalker‘s nom. There’s a strong air this year of ‘ahh it’s the last Skywalker Saga movie we have to nominate it!’, which is annoying since, of the ones I’ve seen, TROS is probably the crappiest movie nominated.

Costume Design:

”The Irishman,” Sandy Powell, Christopher Peterson
“Jojo Rabbit,” Mayes C. Rubeo
“Joker,” Mark Bridges
“Little Women,” Jacqueline Durran
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” Arianne Phillips

Thoughts: I’m happy with three of these. I could do without Irishman or Joker (the latter has one memorable costume and the former is just a bunch of suits) – swap them out with Rocketman and Dolemite and we’re in business.

Makeup and Hair:

“Bombshell”
“Joker”
“Judy”
“Maleficent: Mistress of Evil”
“1917”

Thoughts: I’m sorry, Maleficent got nominated over Once Upon a Time in Hollywood?!? Really?!? 1917‘s nom is, I imagine, mostly for it’s make-up – the only hair thing I can remember is that Colin Firth had a moustache.

Original Song:

“I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away,” “Toy Story 4”
“I’m Gonna Love Me Again,” “Rocketman”
“I’m Standing With You,” “Breakthrough”
“Into the Unknown,” “Frozen 2”
“Stand Up,” “Harriet”

Thoughts: Honestly, there was no original song this year that really stuck with me (no ‘Shallow’ equivalent), so I don’t have much investment in this category. If anything, I’m surprised they went with Breakthrough, which is one of those (from what I’ve heard) Christian propaganda films and barely got a release.

Original Score:

“Joker,” Hildur Guðnadóttir
“Little Women,” Alexandre Desplat
“Marriage Story,” Randy Newman
“1917,” Thomas Newman
“Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker,” John Williams

Thoughts: And the most unnecessary nomination of the night award goes to TROS. Let’s face it, the score in that movie was not up to the Star Wars standard and is nowhere near worth mentioning alongside great scores like 1917‘s and Joker‘s. Swap it out for Michael Abels’ underrated Us score and this’d be a perfect category.

Production Design:

“The Irishman,” Bob Shaw and Regina Graves
“Jojo Rabbit,” Ra Vincent and Nora Sopkova
“1917,” Dennis Gassner and Lee Sandales
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” Barbara Ling and Nancy Haigh
“Parasite,” Lee Ha-Jun and Cho Won Woo, Han Ga Ram, and Cho Hee

Thoughts: I’m happy with all of these. Surprising, I know.

Sound Mixing:

“Ad Astra”
“Ford v Ferrari”
“Joker”
“1917”
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”

Thoughts: This is another good category – the sound mixing in four of these was excellent, and in Joker it was really good.

Sound Editing:

“Ford v Ferrari,” Don Sylvester
“Joker,” Alan Robert Murray
“1917,” Oliver Tarney, Rachel Tate
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” Wylie Stateman
“Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker,” Matthew Wood, David Acord

Thoughts: Good stuff apart from the unnecessary TROS nom. The sound editing was good but all the sound effects were originally created for the Original, Prequel and Sequel Trilogies anyway so it hardly blew me away. Swap it out for Ad Astra – I think they just changed one movie between the sound categories to prove they know the difference.

Film Editing:

“Ford v Ferrari,” Michael McCusker, Andrew Buckland
“The Irishman,” Thelma Schoonmaker
“Jojo Rabbit,” Tom Eagles
“Joker,” Jeff Groth
“Parasite,” Jinmo Yang

Thoughts: I liked the editing in all of these movies, but an inexcusable snub is Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, which had some of the best (and flashiest) editing of the year. If I had to select a weak link among the nominees to replace with Hollywood, I guess I’d choose Joker, but it’s a difficult choice.

Best International Feature Film:

“Corpus Christi,” Jan Komasa
“Honeyland,” Tamara Kotevska, Ljubo Stefanov
“Les Miserables,” Ladj Ly
“Pain and Glory,” Pedro Almodovar
“Parasite,” Bong Joon Ho

Thoughts: Four out of these were nominated as expected, and then I’ve never heard of Corpus Christi (I guess it’s this year’s Never Look Away). I did some research and apparently it’s a Polish film about a guy who gets out of prison and decides to become a priest against the rules of the church, which dictate that a priest cannot have a criminal record. Sounds like very Oscar-y stuff. It’s due for release in the USA in April, with no date in sight for Australia.

(I’m not going to cover short films as I haven’t seen any of them and wouldn’t know where to start in talking about them)

Best Documentary Feature:

“American Factory,” Julia Rieichert, Steven Bognar
“The Cave,” Feras Fayyad
“The Edge of Democracy,” Petra Costa
“For Sama,” Waad Al-Kateab, Edward Watts
“Honeyland,” Tamara Kotevska, Ljubo Stefanov

Thoughts: Is this the first time a movie has ever been nominated for best international and best documentary? Maybe. I predicted three of these. I hadn’t heard of The Cave before now (though I am familiar with the subject matter), and though I had heard of The Edge of Democracy I wasn’t predicting a nom for it. Since the latter’s (along with American Factory) on Netflix, I might get around to watching it so I have some investment in this category.

Cinematography:

“The Irishman,” Rodrigo Prieto
“Joker,” Lawrence Sher
“The Lighthouse,” Jarin Blaschke
“1917,” Roger Deakins
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” Robert Richardson

Thoughts: This was one of the only categories I predicted 100% correctly, so that’s good.

Original Screenplay:

“Knives Out,” Rian Johnson
“Marriage Story,” Noah Baumbach
“1917,” Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” Quentin Tarantino
“Parasite,” Bong Joon-ho, Jin Won Han

Thoughts: Like most people, I was expecting The Farewell to take the fifth slot, but 1917 took it instead. This is very strange to me. I’m not claiming that Farewell is the best-written movie ever or anything, but it is very much a screenplay movie, unlike 1917, which is very much a visuals movie (in fact, the script is probably the weakest element with a couple of logic leaps that were a little too much for me). So for me this category is four good picks and one bad one.

Adapted Screenplay:

“The Irishman,” Steven Zaillian
“Jojo Rabbit,” Taika Waititi
“Joker,” Todd Phillips, Scott Silver
“Little Women,” Greta Gerwig
“The Two Popes,” Anthony McCarten

Thoughts: Another category that I’m mostly happy with save for one nom. Like 1917, Joker is not a screenplay movie, it’s a performance movie, and like 1917, the script is the weakest link (it has the following line: “They think that we’ll just sit there and take it, like good little boys! That we won’t werewolf and go wild!” What does that even mean?). I predicted A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood in Joker‘s place, which got a lot less love from the Academy than I was expecting.

Animated Feature:

“How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World,” Dean DeBlois
“I Lost My Body,” Jeremy Clapin
“Klaus,” Sergio Pablos
“Missing Link,” Chris Butler
“Toy Story 4,”  Josh Cooley

Thoughts: This was one of the most surprising categories, as the film everyone had as their #2, Frozen II, didn’t get nominated. I can’t really comment on this category as I’ve only seen one of the movies.

Director:

Martin Scorsese, “The Irishman”
Todd Phillips, “Joker”
Sam Mendes, “1917”
Quentin Tarantino, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Bong Joon Ho, “Parasite”

Thoughts: Got all of these right. Yes, Todd Phillips is the odd man out in such a strong line-up, but he did a good job with Joker so I’ll cut him some slack. Note also the lack of female directors, despite the predictions of some that Greta Gerwig would get in. I guess since they had an Asian guy the Academy thought they already had enough diversity.

Supporting Actress:

Kathy Bates, “Richard Jewell”
Laura Dern, “Marriage Story”
Scarlett Johansson, “Jojo Rabbit”
Florence Pugh, “Little Women”
Margot Robbie, “Bombshell”

Thoughts: This was probably the most surprising category of them all. Jennifer Lopez misses the nom despite ticking every box going in! Nicole Kidman becomes the only one of the Bombshell trio to not be nominated! Scarlett Johansson gets a (probably underserved) double nomination across two categories! Kathy Bates gets in somehow! This category did quite the number on my prediction accuracy percentage, let me tell you.

Supporting Actor:

Tom Hanks, “A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood”
Anthony Hopkins, “The Two Popes”
Al Pacino, “The Irishman”
Joe Pesci, “The Irishman”
Brad Pitt, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”

Thoughts: After the absolute Last Jedi of a category that was Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor panned out exactly as expected. I’m gunning for Pitt, I think we all are.

Lead Actress:

Cynthia Erivo, “Harriet”
Scarlett Johansson, “Marriage Story”
Saoirse Ronan, “Little Women”
Charlize Theron, “Bombshell”
Renee Zellweger, “Judy”

Thoughts: I got four of these right but I dropped in an ‘out-there’ prediction like I did with the Globes and I got it wrong – Cynthia Erivo got nominated over Lupita Nyong’o. A right shame.

Lead Actor:

Antonio Banderas, “Pain and Glory”
Leonardo DiCaprio, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Adam Driver, “Marriage Story”
Joaquin Phoenix, “Joker”
Jonathan Pryce, “The Two Popes”

Thoughts: This category was a bit of a shitshow, to be honest. Robert De Niro got snubbed, as did Taron Egerton! Nobody was predicting Johnathan Pryce, but he got in anyway (don’t get me wrong, he was great in The Two Popes, but he was no De Niro)!

Best Picture:

“Ford v Ferrari”
“The Irishman”
“Jojo Rabbit”
“Joker”
“Little Women”
“Marriage Story”
“1917”
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
“Parasite”

Thoughts: At this point, both Hopkins and Pryce had been nominated (plus a screenplay nom) so I was beginning to think that Popes was a lock for best picture, even though I had it at like #9 or #10 on my predictions. As it turns out, it seems the Academy didn’t love it that much. Otherwise, things turned out exactly as expected. I know I’ve done a lot of complaining, but it’s a good bunch of films this year. There’s no massive dud in the Picture category like there was with Vice last time. There are two or three five-star bangers in here, and the lowest it goes is three-and-a-half. I’m pretty happy, even if some of the other nominations were a bit dodgy.

Well, as opposed to the Golden Globes, I did pretty horribly with the CCAs as far as my predictions go. Of the film awards, I predicted 13/23 correctly, which was pretty dire. Anyway, I thought I’d run down my opinions on each award and what I think it says (if anything) about the films’ Oscar chances.

Before we begin, I’d like to add that I loved HBO’s Watchmen and was happy to see both Regina King and Jean Smart go home with well-deserved awards. Good picks.

Best Score: Joker won over my prediction of 1917. I’m starting to think that it’ll take the Oscar, even though it seemed like Thomas Newman’s 1917 score was the front runner. Personally, I prefer the latter, so this was a shame.

Best Song: I didn’t realise the CCAs do ties so when this was announced I was like ‘what?!?’ Anyway, Rocketman and Wild Rose won.

Best Foreign Language Film: Parasite won, as we all expected – totally deserved.

Best Sci-Fi or Horror Film: I had no idea what was gonna win in this category so I took a guess and was actually right – Us won! Good choice, probably the best movie nominated.

Best Comedy: I was an idiot and predicted Booksmart. I should have known when they gave Eddie Murphy a Lifetime Achievement Award that they were going to give it to Dolemite is My Name. In my opinion, Dolemite was the worst film nominated but I still liked it.

Best Action Movie: I thought John Wick was going to win since it was the most action movie-y of the nominees but they gave it to Endgame. I would have given it to 1917 even though I don’t consider it an action film.

Best Animated Feature: As I predicted, Toy Story 4 won, proving that Missing Link was just a Globes thing and TS4 is still the front runner.

Best Visual Effects: I predicted The Irishman because it’s more of a critic-friendly movie, but Endgame won. I’m not denying that it had fantastic CGI, but Irishman made much more emotionally impactful use of it’s VFX, even if it was dodgy at parts.

Best Hair and Make-Up: Bombshell won, as I think we all predicted – it’s the Vice of this year.

Best Costume Design: Dolemite won, as I predicted. Personally, would have chosen Hollywood as I think the costumes in that film say a lot about the characters.

Best Editing: I was astonished when they gave this award to 1917, with intentionally the most invisible editing of the nominees. Great editing, but I would give it to The Irishman because Thelma Schoonmaker had to keep the pace going over three-and-a-half-hours.

Best Production Design: Hollywood won – deserved.

Best Cinematography: 1917 won, obviously.

Best Adapted Screenplay: Greta Gerwig won, which surprised me a lot as I was predicting Steve Zaillian. Gerwig’s script is admirable for it’s remixing of Louisa May Alcott’s novel, but had some issues. Irishman would have been the better choice.

Best Original Screenplay: Tarantino won. I was predicting Bong Joon-ho. The two scripts are pretty evenly-matched for me so I’m only disappointed in that my prediction was wrong.

Best Director: I can’t believe they tied such a huge category, but Mendes and Joon-ho crossed the finish line at the same time. Both good choices.

Best Ensemble: I was predicting Knives Out because it had the biggest cast, but Irishman won. I guess the CCAs couldn’t turn up the trio of De Niro, Pacino and Pesci. I think the nominee with the most amount of great performances was probably Little Women – Ronan, Pugh, Dern, Streep, Chalamet…

Best Young Actor/Actress: Roman Griffin Davis won, as I predicted. I’m undecided on whether I liked his performance or Julia Butters’ more, but he had more screentime so I can imagine wanting to give him the award.

Best Supporting Actress: Laura Dern won. I really liked her performance in Marriage Story. Was it awards-worthy? Maybe not, but it’s not a crowded category and it’s her year. I might have voted for Florence Pugh in Little Women as she was a bit of a standout among a pretty crowded cast.

Best Supporting Actor: Brad Pitt won, good stuff.

Best Actress: I’ve yet to see Judy but I predicted Zellweger because she’s the front runner. Out of the ones I have seen, I’d have gone for either Nyong’o or Johansson.

Best Actor: I predicted Driver since I thought he was more of the critical favourite, but front runner Phoenix pulled through. Great performance, I liked Driver’s more.

Best Picture: I predicted Parasite but OUATIH won, solidifying my prediction that Hollywood‘s winning at the Oscars. Good to see.