Final Big Five Oscar Nomination Predictions

Alright, this is it. My final predictions for the ‘Big Five’ (well, I guess it’s Big Six, but you know what I mean) Oscar nominees of 2021. I’ve listed each of my predicted nominees by how confident I am in my prediction, and I’ll briefly explain my choices for each category. Without further ado…

Precursor nominations are listed in brackets beside each nominee. Bold indicates a win, Italics indicate that the award in question has not yet been given out, and an * asterisk indicates that the film was nominated in a musical or comedy category.

BEST PICTURE:

1. Nomadland (GG, CC, BAFTA, PGA)
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (GG, CC, BAFTA, PGA)
3. Promising Young Woman (GG, CC, BAFTA, PGA)
4. Mank (GG, CC, PGA)
5. Minari (CC, PGA)
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (CC, PGA)
7. One Night in Miami (CC, PGA)
8. Sound of Metal (CC, PGA)
9. The Father (GG, BAFTA)
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PGA)

Note: The top 7 are locks, but the bottom three are pretty up-in-the-air. Historically, the Oscars usually go for eight or nine nominees and there’s no reason why that’d be different this year, so it stands to reason that at least one of the bottom three will ultimately be nominated. I’ve gone back and forth on it a lot, but I’ve decided to put my proverbial money on Sound of Metal as the #8. it’s hit at exactly the same precursors as my #5-7 (and has the potential for nominations in a myriad of categories, including Actor, Supporting Actor, Screenplay, Editing and Sound).The Father also seems fairly buzz-y to me – it has Actor and Supporting Actress behind it, and in general feels like a Best Picture movie, if you know what I mean. The only issue is that it’s apparently been having some issues getting screeners out to voters, which is likely why it didn’t pick up nominations at the Critics’ Choice or the PGA. We don’t yet know whether this issue will affect the Oscars or not. Judas takes the bottom spot; it does have a solid chance of getting nominated, but ultimately it’s not a strong contender in any category other than Supporting Actor, which is a pretty abysmal package for Best Picture.

BEST DIRECTOR:

1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (GG, CC, BAFTA, DGA)
2. David Fincher, Mank (GG, CC, DGA)
3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (GG, CC, DGA)
4. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman (GG, CC, DGA)
5. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (CC, BAFTA, DGA)

Note: This is a rare category this year in that all five nominees are pretty much locked in. All five were nominated for the DGA, and each picked up at least two nominations elsewhere. I feel pretty confident in this one.

BEST ACTRESS:

1. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (GG, CC, SAG)
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (GG, CC, BAFTA, SAG)
3. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (GG, CC, SAG)
4. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (GG, CC, BAFTA, SAG)
5. Andra Day, The United States vs Billie Holiday (GG, CC)

Note: The Best Actress race is pretty locked in at this point. The #5 spot eluded us for a while but Andra Day’s win at the Globes secured it for her, even if she’s only been nominated at half the major precursors.

BEST ACTOR:

1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (GG, CC, BAFTA, SAG)
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (GG, CC, BAFTA, SAG)
3. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (GG, CC, BAFTA, SAG)
4. Gary Oldman, Mank (GG, CC, SAG)
5. Steven Yeun, Minari (CC, SAG)

Note: The top four in this category are looking pretty strong, with only one missed nomination between them. Less secure is Steven Yeun in the #5 spot, but I’m not sure who exactly could upset that. Delroy Lindo’s chances are pretty much dead after he only got a Critics Choice nom. Tahar Rahim is a possibility after nominations at both the Golden Globes and the BAFTAs, but The Mauritanian isn’t a Best Picture contender like Minari is. All in all, Yeun is the safest pick for #5, but that’s not a high bar to clear.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

1. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (GG, CC, BAFTA, SAG)
2. Olivia Colman, The Father (GG, CC, SAG)
3. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (GG, CC, SAG)
4. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari (CC, BAFTA, SAG)
5. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (GG, CC)

Note: This category is all over the place, and honestly any one of these five could be snubbed in favour of someone like Jodie Foster (who, remember, won the Globe) or Ellen Burstyn or even Helena Zengel. But I think this is the safest five possible, and one that I am, relatively speaking, more confident in than any of the other combinations I could have chosen.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

1. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (GG, CC, BAFTA, SAG)
2. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (GG, CC, SAG)
3. Leslie Odom Jr., One Night in Miami (GG, CC, BAFTA, SAG)
4. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (CC, SAG)
5. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal (CC, BAFTA)

Note: I feel fairly confident about this one, but I’d keep an eye out for Jared Leto, who has the same number of nominations as #4 & 5. Ditto for Bill Murray, although I think he’s lost a lot of steam later in the season. I wouldn’t put too much trust in the Alan Kim surge. It’s possible, but seems unlikely.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (GG, CC, BAFTA, WGA)
2. Promising Young Woman (GG, CC, BAFTA, WGA)
3. Mank (GG, CC, BAFTA)
4. Sound of Metal (CC, WGA)
5. Minari (CC)

Note: Admittedly, Minari looks a little weak here, but I don’t know what to replace it with. Judas and the Black Messiah also has a single nomination, but I’ve chosen to prioritise the Critics’ Choice over the WGA, for reasons I can’t quite explain. If you really want an extremely unlikely but not entirely impossible longshot, predict Palm Springs or Another Round.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

1. Nomadland (GG, CC, BAFTA)
2. The Father (GG, CC, BAFTA)
3. One Night in Miami (CC, WGA)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (CC, WGA)
5. The Mauritanian (BAFTA)

Note: As you may have noticed, I’ve gone for a longshot in this category. It’s not usually my style, but sometimes I like to liven things up a bit, and so I’ve predicted The Mauritanian in the fifth slot. There’s usually at least one Screenplay nominee that doesn’t really get any other nominations (think First Reformed), and I’ve chosen to believe in the post-Globes Mauritanian surge, which is either really smart or really stupid.